Marketing can feel like magic. You spend money on ads and somehow, sales go up. But how do you actually know what’s working? That’s where tools like Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) and Incrementality Testing come in. Both are powerful. Both help answer the question: Which marketing efforts are really driving results? But they do very different things.
Let’s start with Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM)
Marketing Mix Modeling is like a super scientist. It looks at the big picture. MMM takes years of data and uses statistics to find patterns. It looks at everything from TV ads to price changes. The goal? To figure out how each element of your marketing mix contributes to sales.
- TV ads? MMM looks at them.
- Social media? Yep, that too.
- Pricing and seasonality? Absolutely.
This method is great for long-term planning. It answers questions like:
- Which channel gives us the best ROI over time?
- How much should we spend on each channel next quarter?
- What happens if we stop advertising in one region?
But here’s the catch…
MMM takes a lot of time and data. It’s like baking a cake with 12 ingredients that each cook at different speeds. You need clean, consistent, historical data. And you often have to wait weeks or even months to see results. Plus, it’s not always great at capturing fast changes—like the impact of a new TikTok trend.
Now, let’s talk about Incrementality
Incrementality is all about cause and effect. It’s like a mini-experiment. You show ads to one group of people, and not to another. Then you see which group buys more. This helps you know if the ads actually caused the sale.
Unlike MMM, incrementality is very specific. It answers questions like:
- Did this Facebook ad increase conversions?
- What’s the lift from a YouTube campaign in this market?
- If we stopped Google Search ads, would sales drop?
It’s fast. It’s focused. And it gives marketers real-time info to tweak campaigns.
Real-world example time 🎯
Let’s say a snack brand runs national TV ads and local Facebook ads. MMM might show that overall, TV ads give them a 10% lift in quarterly sales. But it won’t tell them which age group watched and converted. That’s where incrementality testing on Facebook can help. Maybe the brand finds that Facebook ads drove 20% more sales among 18–24 year olds in urban areas. Boom! Now they know where to focus between national and local efforts.
Pros and Cons
Marketing Mix Modeling Pros:
- Good for decisions over months or years
- Sees how offline marketing works too
- Useful for budget allocation
Marketing Mix Modeling Cons:
- Slow to run and update
- Needs a lot of clean historical data
- Harder to adapt to quick digital shifts
Incrementality Testing Pros:
- Fast results
- Clear cause-and-effect evidence
- Works well with digital ads
Incrementality Testing Cons:
- Not good for long-term planning
- Can be costly to set up controlled tests
- Focuses only on what you test — can miss larger trends
How to get started
If you’re just getting into marketing measurement, start small. Pick one channel or campaign. Try an incrementality test. Then move on to broader planning using MMM. As you grow, combine both for a full picture.
Many tools today offer simplified MMM and automated incrementality features. Google, Meta, Amazon—they all offer platforms that help you measure smarter. Even some startups offer plug-and-play solutions so you don’t have to build models from scratch.
The final word
Marketing is part art, part science. Using both MMM and incrementality helps you master both. MMM gives you the 10,000-foot view. Incrementality zooms into the action. When you use both, you stop guessing. You start knowing. And that’s when your marketing truly levels up.
The smartest marketers don’t choose just one lens. They switch between them depending on the goal.
So next time someone asks “What’s working?”, you’ll have the tools — and the confidence — to answer.